Answer:
Challenging your assumptions about the future, and basing your plans and decisions on the most likely outcomes, means that your decisions will more likely be sound, even if circumstances change.
But what are the most likely outcomes? Author and corporate strategist Peter Schwartz, one of the pioneers of scenario thinking, identified the following common scenarios:
Evolution: all trends continue as expected. Things gently move toward a predictable end point.
Revolution: a new, disruptive, factor fundamentally changes the situation.
Cycles: what goes around comes around. Boom follows bust follows boom follows bust.
Infinite Expansion: exciting trends continue. Think of the computer industry in the 1950s.
Lone Ranger: the triumph of the lone hero against the forces of inertia.
My Generation: changes in culture and demographics affect the situation.
Explanation:
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