Answer:
The Black Sea basin has become a flashpoint due to Russia’s interventions in Georgia and Ukraine. This has implications not only for European security, but also for Mediterranean security as well. As the prospect of a larger conflict between Ukraine and Russia looms, close attention should be paid to its possible effects on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The ties between the conflict in Ukraine and the MENA region are more complex than they may seem at first glance. Regional states have a direct interest in preventing escalation and, in the case of heightened conflict, in minimizing its consequences as quickly as possible.
There are three key areas where the MENA region will be affected by a large-scale confrontation between Russia and Ukraine: energy, due to expected interruptions of global energy flows; agriculture, because of possible disruptions of agricultural trade and grain production in the Black Sea basin; and refugees, as yet another humanitarian crisis would stress an already under-funded and over-extended global aid system.
Explanation:
It will affect the Energy, Potential natural gas supply disruptions in Europe in the case of conflict between Russia and Ukraine are a major concern for the U.S. and the EU, and as a result they are taking measures to strengthen European energy security. Disruptions in the oil market are also possible. They could be caused either by financial sanctions — wherein buyers would not be able to buy Russian energy products — or by risks related to the transportation of Russian energy products, especially through the Black Sea and Ukrainian territory.Russian natural gas accounts for about 40% of the EU gas market and making up for its disruption would not be easy. It is already known that Qatar and the U.S. are exploring options to provide Europe .
Agriculture ,The Black Sea basin is one of the world’s most important areas for grain and agricultural exports. An estimated 12% of the total global grain trade passes through the Bosphorus every year, with many of these shipments heading to nearby MENA countries. Ukraine exports 95% of its grain through the Black Sea and more than 50% of its wheat exports went to the MENA region in 2020. Half of Lebanon’s and 43% of Libya’s wheat imports came from Ukraine. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, relies heavily on imports from the Black Sea region. Additionally, Ukraine is Egypt’s primary supplier of corn. Extensive conflict or a blockade of the Black Sea would limit the agricultural products available to MENA countries, giving rise to a potential food crisis. Supplies from Ukraine would need to be replaced by those from another source, which would result in a hike in prices; they are already at a 10-year high, reaching levels comparable to those during the Arab Spring.h gas shipments in the event of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Humanitarian crisis,International funding for humanitarian aid and reconstruction is already strained, with the United Nations estimating that a record number of people will need assistance in 2022. A conflict in Ukraine would further burden a system that is maxed out. Countries in the MENA region, such as Yemen, continue to be afflicted by conflict and remain in need of humanitarian aid, reconstruction, and development funds. MENA countries are also struggling to resolve their own refugee crises. It is in the region’s best interest to do what it can to prevent further escalation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which would cause more suffering and destruction and require more resources to alleviate its effects.
